The hottest nine silver ten is over, and the winte

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The "golden nine and silver ten" is over, and the winter in China's auto market is coming.

"golden nine and silver ten" is over. The winter in China's auto market is coming.

10:48 Author: Ni Jia source: Times weekly

China's climate has generally entered the autumn and winter season since October, and the temperature has begun to fall significantly. On October 12, the China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Association) announced the economic operation of the automobile industry in September. It seems that the "golden nine and silver ten" law, which has been described as China's automobile market in the past, has been broken

according to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in September this year, automobile production and sales decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, continuing the downturn since July. In addition, compared with the same period last year, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased by 11.9% and 12% respectively, which has been a year-on-year decline in production and sales for three consecutive months

since 2015, the Chinese auto market, especially the passenger car market, which has been worried by public opinion, has begun to face a cold winter, and now it seems to be finally coming. At the same time, this decline also means that the record of continuous growth of China's auto industry since the late 1990s may be ended

cuidongshu, Secretary General of the passenger car market information joint committee, previously said that the market growth in June and July of previous years was relatively flat due to seasonal factors. August was the turning point of the car market from weak to strong. However, the car sales in August this year were still accelerating the decline, which showed the severity of the market. The passenger car Association predicts that the overall growth rate of passenger cars this year will be zero or slightly negative, and there is a great possibility of negative growth

turning point of automobile market

since China joined the WTO in 2001, China's auto industry has ushered in a golden period of development. With more and more joint ventures entering China, China's auto sales increased from 2.37 million in 2001 to 28.8 million in 2017

in recent years, there have been many comments about the slowdown of China's auto market, but they have reversed the situation again and again under the encouragement of various factors and policies

looking back on last year's sales performance, it has shown a slight growth since March, and has not shown a significant rise until the end of the year. Therefore, the industry is generally cautious about the performance of China's auto sales in 2018, believing that there is likely to be the first negative growth in many years

according to the statistical data analysis of China Automobile Association, the automobile production and sales volume in September this year increased month on month, and fell rapidly year on year. From January to September, automobile production and sales increased slightly year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than that of January when operators logged in samples – it continued to fall in August

among them, the automobile production and sales in September decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. The automobile production and sales in September were 2.356 million and 2.394 million respectively. Although the production and sales volume increased by 17.8% and 13.8% respectively compared with August, the year-on-year decline reached as much as 11.7% and 11.6%, which was the largest year-on-year decline since 26.4% in January 2012

looking at the situation from January to September, China's automobile production and sales were 20.491 million units, with production and sales increased by 0.9% and 1.5% respectively over the same period last year, and the growth rate fell by 1.9 and 2 percentage points respectively over the previous eight months. The growth rate of production and sales continued to fall, and the overall performance began to be lower than expected at the beginning of the year. This means that the actual situation is more serious than the originally bearish expectation at the beginning of the year

for passenger cars, which choose our impact testing machine market, in September, the production and sales of 2.025 million and 2.06 million vehicles were completed respectively, the production and sales volume increased by 18.7% and 15.1% month on month respectively, and fell by 11.9% and 12% year on year respectively. This has been the situation of year-on-year decline in production and sales for three consecutive months. Even entering the "golden nine silver ten" cycle, the overall trend of the passenger car market has not changed

1 - in September, the production and sales of passenger cars were 17.351 million and 17.26 million respectively, with an overall year-on-year increase of 0.1% and 0.6% respectively

according to the production and sales of four types of passenger cars, the production and sales of cars increased by 0.2% and 1.3% year-on-year respectively; SUV production and sales increased by 4.2% and 3.9% respectively over the same period last year; MPV production and sales decreased by 15.2% and 13.1% respectively over the same period last year; The production and sales of cross type passenger vehicles decreased by 18.2% and 19.6% respectively over the same period last year

whether it is the single month production and sales volume from July to September or the overall car market performance in the first three quarters, China's passenger car market has reached an obvious inflection point. After June this year, the overall car sales showed a downward trend. The car sales growth in June, July and August were +4.8%, -4.0%, -3.8% respectively. The cumulative domestic car sales from January to September were 17.2577 million, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.64%

the collective decline of various auto enterprises

relevant experts from the China Association of automobile manufacturers said that although the market is trying to avoid a continued decline in sales, the overall growth this year will be lower than the full year expectation of 3% at the beginning of the year

with the September data news released by the China Automobile Association on October 12, the morning trading situation of the stock market on October 15 was the collective weakness of auto stocks, with Chang'an Automobile plummeted by 6%, SAIC Motor Group plummeted by 5%, and many stocks such as Great Wall Motors, Jinlong motors, Haima motors fell

in fact, the reason for the decline in the share prices of automobile enterprises is not simply affected by the news

China's auto market, which has long been used to growing year after year, has been the "number one" in the world for several years. In the face of today's sudden decline, it is somewhat difficult to adapt

taking a single automobile enterprise as an example, among the top 15 enterprises in terms of sales volume, only Geely, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota and brilliance BMW increased year-on-year, while the other 11 enterprises, although ranked well, all had negative year-on-year growth. What is surprising is the old joint venture brand SAIC Volkswagen, whose sales fell by 14.0% year-on-year in September

according to the latest sales data released by SAIC Group on October 11, SAIC Volkswagen sold 188000 new cars in September, far lower than 218613 in the same period last year

sales data released by Ford, another old joint venture, showed that sales in China plunged 43% year-on-year in September. Among them, Changan Ford Motor fell 55% year-on-year; Jiangling Automobile sales fell 15% year-on-year; The sales of imported Ford cars also fell 16% month on month, and only Lincoln brand increased slightly year on year

other mainstream joint ventures have seen a decline. Beijing Hyundai sold 62962 vehicles in September, with a year-on-year decline of 14.4%; SAIC GM Wuling sold 172, 000 vehicles in September, down 10% year-on-year; SAIC GM sold 183000 vehicles in September, down 2.2% year-on-year; GAC Honda sold 69660 vehicles in September, down 3.6% year on year; Dongfeng Honda sold 67897 vehicles in September, down 8.3% year-on-year, and Dongfeng Nissan, which has always been good at marketing, also sold 0.4% year-on-year in September

although the trend growth rate of the overall market shows signs of decline, some enterprises still show year-on-year growth. Therefore, it can be understood that the competition in the automotive market has officially shifted from incremental growth to stock competition, that is, the situation of this change will become more obvious

according to industry sources, the development of these technologies was still in progress before, and the China Automobile Circulation Association has submitted a document to the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance proposing to halve the purchase tax on vehicles with displacement of 2.0L and below, hoping to reverse the sales decline with policy incentives again

as for the final effect of the policy, Cui Dong's profit space has been constantly squeezed. Shu told the times weekly that the trend of China's auto market continued to decline significantly in the fourth quarter, and it is impossible to predict its final effect at present

the winter of China's automobile market has arrived

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